Service 05 · modelling
Epidemiological models
How many eligible patients actually exist for your indication. We build the funnel from population prevalence down to treatable and accessible patients, with every assumption documented and auditable.
- Duration
- 4–8 wks
- Sources
- Secondary + KOL
- Cuts
- National and state
- Deliverable
- Open model
When to use it
When the figure you use comes from a slide with no source
Most forecasts in the industry carry a patient number whose origin nobody remembers. This model is built from verifiable sources and makes explicit which assumption holds up each step of the funnel.
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What is the real prevalence of the indication in Mexico, and which source supports it?
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How many of those patients are diagnosed, and how many treated?
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How does the universe split across IMSS, ISSSTE, IMSS-Bienestar, state services and private?
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How many patients meet the biomarker criterion my product requires?
Methodology
A funnel where every step has a source
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Step 01
Review
Systematic search of prevalence and incidence in national and international literature, with quality appraisal and applicability to the Mexican context.
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Step 02
Official sources
Exploitation of ENSANUT, Ministry of Health data cubes, hospital discharges and available institutional statistics.
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Step 03
Funnel
Construction of the funnel: population, prevalence, diagnosis, treatment, eligibility by clinical criterion and access by sector.
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Step 04
Validation
Each assumption contrasted with specialists in the indication and ranges adjusted. What cannot be validated is reported as an interval, not a point estimate.
The model is delivered open, in a spreadsheet, with every cell traceable to its source. You can change an assumption and see the effect without depending on us.
Deliverables
What you receive
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Open model
Spreadsheet with the full funnel, editable assumptions and sensitivity analysis on the critical variables.
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Methodological memo
Document with the source of each parameter, its year, geographic coverage and known limitation.
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Sector cuts
Universe split by institution and by state, for access and sales-force planning.
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Scenarios
Low, central and high ranges, with the variable that moves the result most explicitly identified.
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Ten-year projection
A year-by-year projected series through year ten, showing how the eligible universe evolves under each scenario and the demographic and access assumptions behind it.
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Every source assessed
You receive the full set of sources located, each with its evidence rating; the central model is built on the strongest one and the rest remain available for contrast.
Frequently asked
What clients usually ask
- What if there is no Mexican data for my indication?
- We use the best available international evidence with documented demographic adjustment, and declare it as the assumption with highest uncertainty. We do not invent a local figure.
- Is it useful for pharmacoeconomics?
- Yes, it is its natural input. The eligible universe feeds directly into the budget impact model.
- Does it include future projection?
- Yes, with CONAPO demographic projection and diagnostic-improvement assumptions declared separately from population growth.
- Is it updated?
- It can be updated when new evidence is published, or when integrated into a continuous platform such as Targeting.
Request a proposal
Tell us the indication, the physician audience and the date you need the result. We respond with design, sample, timing and price.